Nate Silver's Polling Predictions: Justin Fox Breaks Down the Numbers
"In many ways, a percentage forecast is the most honest way of calibrating one's balance between confidence and uncertainty," Fox explains. "But as a way of communicating uncertainty, the percentage forecast is also deeply flawed." For those looking to use his predictions as a factor in their voting decision may not stand to gain much from Silver's predictions, Fox writes. But those betting on the outcome of the race, or someone that has investment and political donation decisions riding on who wins, Fox argues that percentage forecasting may be helpful .The author of The Myth of the Rational Market, Fox writes informative and accessible assessments on economics, finance, and the intersection of these two disciplines with broader societal issues. Whether it's in print, the media, or in a keynote talk, he brings history, politics and economics together to paint a vivid picture of how the market affects our lives today.